Monday, April 14, 2014

Senate Bill 54 is actually a good thing?


This is a graphic I made depicting the outdated Caucus-Convention system.

After a citizen’s initiative by the name of Count My Vote (CVM) swept the state collecting over 100,000 signatures (countmyvote.org), the Utah Legislature passed Senate Bill 54 (SB54) on March 10, 2014 (openstates.org) in an effort to compromise. Aiming to reform the current caucus/convention system that Utah currently follow during elections, CMV gained great support from citizens that found the convention system confusing or exclusionary. With so many followers, it is no wonder that much of the state was upset when SB54 was passed. SB54 is currently the best option for our state, because the current caucus convention system is under regulated and exclusionary, but the Count My Vote petition would not fix the underlying problem in the current system.
The details of the current system are confusing, but here is a flow chart that will give you an idea of the general proceedings:
    
     The process is the same for both Republicans and Democrats except that Republican primary election  is closed. This means that only registered republicans can vote in the primary. Since Utah has a history of almost always selecting a Republican over a Democrat for any position, it is very unfair that only a handful of Republican citizens get to chose the candidate that will go to the general election and more than likely win.
 Unaffiliated voters have the option to re-register as Republicans, but many feel it goes against what they stand for as unaffiliated voters. In an article by the Deseret News, Lee Davidson writes:
  “Only a relative handful of "unaffiliated" voters chose to re-register as Republicans to participate in that party's June 24th primary election, according to new figures provided by the lieutenant governor's office.
That statistic is important because the majority of all Utah voters — 55 percent — are unaffiliated. But because Utah generally votes so heavily Republican anyway, that party's primary often chooses not only its nominees but also the eventual winners (who often face only token opposition in the general election).
So if unaffiliated voters choose not to vote in the primary, it means few Utah voters are likely choosing the eventual winners.”
On the same point of miss-representation, a poll by Carl Cox (15) found that ". . .delegates were more wealthy, educated, partisan (especially Republicans), Mormon, and male than voters.”  Here is a picture of a recent caucus meeting from Wade Francom, ABC 4 News that shows the age/race discrepancy of delegates compared to that of the general population.
Note: The population of Utah is not solely made up of caucasians crowned in white.
In an email to former Utah Governor Mike Leavitt, Mitt Romney expressed his support for an organization working to reshape Utah’s election system, the Count My Vote citizens’ initiative,  saying that the “Caucus/convention systems exclude so many people. . . They rarely produce a result that reflects how rank and file Republicans feel” (qtd. in Michelle Price).  In Report 708, the Utah Foundation found that delegates voting for their party usually took “more zealous positions than their parties’ voters” (1). Here is a poll found by Deseret News that shows the discrepancy in opinions (Bob Bernik):

 
Other issues stem from the under-regulated proceedings and delegate elections. At many of the conventions, candidates give speeches and meet with delegates in attempt to sway their vote. Afterward, delegates write down their chosen nominee’s name on a torn sheet of paper, each of which is collected by handing it down the line to the chairmen. There is no head-count of delegates attending the convention, which means there is also no definite number of votes, allowing extra votes to easily be added to the pile in support of one candidate as opposed to another. Elections can easily be rigged and people can easily cheat since convention chairmen often times rely on honor-code. In addition, votes are not attached to the names of voters, which leaves a void in accountability. After the votes are counted by hand, the party’s nomination is announced (Richards 31-32).
  The lack of security also suggests a bigger problem: regulation of delegate allocation. The number of delegates allocated per county is based on the party’s strength in a given county. Here is the current equation to find a party’s strength:
(votes cast by party) ÷ (votes cast total) =strength%
From here, the math for parties varies slightly. Republicans are allowed 3,500 delegates in the state convention. Here is their equation:
strength% x 3,500 = Number of Delegates
The Democrats’ equation is a bit more complex because they allot 5 delegates per county. Their total delegate count in state conventions is 2,645, which allows their equation to be:
(5 +strength%) x 2,500 = Number of Delegates
These equations result in a percent, which is applied toward the party’s total number of delegates from each county that will be present at the state convention.
These equations were formed in the court case Ripon Society v. National Republican Party (1957), which also set the limit for deviation at 5% from the number calculated with the equation. A study conducted by Amie Richards found that almost all counties had a deviance of more than 5%.  In some cases, counties had overshot their real percentage by over 100%. Here is a table of her results:
     Deviance By Party
County
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Beaver
9.09%
23.08%
Box Elder
8.14%
34.31%
Cache
8.43%
25.24%
Carbon
16.67%
20.56%
Daggett
66.67%
0.00%
Davis
2.04%
4.29%
Duchesne
17.24%
36.90%
Emery
15.00%
25.00%
Garfield
30.77%
3.13%
Grand
10.00%
13.00%
Iron
17.07%
18.24%
Juab
13.33%
23.44%
Kane
33.33%
0.00%
Millard
20.83%
21.88%
Morgan
6.27%
21.43%
Piute
40.00%
0.00%
Rich
0.00%
10.71%
Salt Lake
7.33%
26.61%
San Juan
6.67%
11.96%
Sanpete
18.60%
31.03%
Sevier
21.95%
23.91%
Summit
15.00%
26.34%
Toole
193.22%
20.39%
Uintah
12.24%
47.86%
Utah
11.99%
33.55%
Wasatch
18.92%
23.53%
Washington
4.37%
17.81%
Wayne
0.00%
10.71%
Weber
1.71%
18.68%
 Although Richards does not state how she found these percentages, I assume it was found by dividing the correct number of delegates for the county by the number of delegates a county claimed.
In her conclusion, Richards states that these deviances are legally significant and in violation of the equal protection clause of the Fourteenth Amendment, which grants that every citizen will be equally protected and equally represented. She reaches this conclusion because in counties that lie about how many delegates should be allocated to them, the voters are represented more heavily than those that live in a county that does not lie. A county with a false amount of power provides more
representation to its citizens which violates the Fourteenth Amendment.
With over 55% of all Utahns not being represented and so many loopholes in the system, it is clear why thousands of people contributed to the Count My Vote petition. Its intentions of collecting the required 102,000 signatures by April 15, 2014 to allow the initiative onto the ballot in November 2014 was almost reached.  By February 2014 Count My Vote released a statement stating that the petition had already reached 100,000 signatures. With almost two months and only 2,000 signatures left, it seemed impossible for the initiative to fail. If the bill was passed by popular vote of the citizens in November, the following would replace the current system by 2016:


Under CMV the Republican primary will still be closed. The real issue is that unaffiliated voters do not have the chance to vote in primary elections; CMV is essentially ineffectual (Fred Cox). The efforts weren’t completely unproductive, though. It forced lawmakers to respond;  A compromise was made.  
After days of debating, the leaders of Count My Vote promised to discharge the petition as soon as Governor Herbert signed the new deal Senate Bill 54 (Price). According to the bill the convention system will remain intact. Each party will still hold a convention to nominate delegates and choose candidates, but candidates will also have the option to collect signatures in order to be put onto the primary ballot. Most importantly, primaries will be open to all registered voters. 
It is my opinion that citizens upset about the so called betrayal of CMV do not fully understand the progress that has been made. I have personal experience rallying behind CMV without fully understanding it. Representatives collecting signatures on the University of Utah’s campus grabbed me and pressured me to sign their petition. I was half way through signing the sheet before I realized I didn’t know what I was signing for. I stopped and asked the man calling to passers by. He gave me a watered-down, said-it-a-million-times explanation. Luckily I had already done my research about the caucus system and finished signing my name. Truth be told, I am happy that I signed the petition, but I wish I had fully understood it. Having read the initiative (countmyvote.org), I know that is was poorly written and would not have have accomplished anything in terms of revolution.
I found this chart on betterutah.org, but I changed an error in the last box under CMV.
Although the caucus/convention system and its delegates remain unregulated (SB54), this was a compromise that went above and beyond the intentions of CMV.  Opening primaries to unaffiliated voters was the most important feature in this transformation. The 55% of unrepresented citizens will finally gain their right to vote. This achievement would not have happened under CMV, but was a direct product of it. SB54 is a change we should welcome, and CMV a drive we can be grateful for.

Work Cited

Bernik, Bob. “Poll: Utah State Delegates Out of Step With Most Utahns.” Deseret News. n.d. 28 April 2010. Web. 7 April 2014.


countmyvoteutah.org. Count My Vote. n.d. Web. 5 February 2014.


Cox, Carl Jonathan. A ‘TWO-FISTED, THREE-PARTY STATE’: UTAH’S 1992 U.S. SENATE RACE. MA Thesis. University of Utah, 2011. Print.


Cox, Fred C. “Flaws in Count My Vote Proposed Legislation.” Neighborhood Elections. 25 January 2014, n.p. Web. 5 April 2014.


Davidson, Lee. “Majority of Unaffiliated Didn’t Vote in Primary.” Deseret News. 10 July 2008. n.p.


Price, Michelle L. “Groups Reach Deal on Utah Caucus System.” Standard Examiner. 2 March 2014. The Associated Press. Web. 6 April 2014.


Richards, Amie. “Controversy and Constitutionality: An Analysis of the Convention System in Utah.” Hinckley
  Journal of Politics, Vol 12 (2011) 29-36. Web. 4 February 2014.
SB54. Open States. n.d, n.p. Web. April 5, 2014.
Utah Foundation. “Nominating Candidates: The Politics and Process of Utah’s Unique Convention and Primary System” Utah Foundation Report Number 704 (2011)

Utah Foundation. “The 2012 Utah Priorities Survey of Party Delegates and Voters.” Utah Foundation Report Number 708 (2012)